John Rapley

John Rapley is a political economist who brings global development, world‑economy and economic‑history expertise to business commentary, using opinion columns to connect big macro shocks to their real‑world economic consequences. He writes regularly for the Globe and Mail’s business pages as a contributing columnist, framing market moves, policy decisions and political dramas as parts of longer economic cycles rather than isolated events. His work is shaped by a career that spans journalism and academia, and by reporting that has ranged from interviews with prime ministers and billionaires to encounters with drug‑lords and victims of sex‑slavery.

Global shocks and the world economy

Rapley’s core focus is how global shocks reverberate through the world economy and reshape the business environment. He writes about war, oil shocks, debt and inflation as intertwined forces, treating them as “four horsemen” of a developing economic crisis rather than discrete stories. His columns on the relationship between China and the United States describe the two countries as “the worst frenemies of the world economy,” emphasizing how their rivalry and co‑dependence frame risks for investors, trade and growth. He follows geopolitical flashpoints such as Iran, Taiwan and Ukraine primarily for their economic fallout, examining how near‑miss wars, arm‑supply strategies and sanctions affect bond markets, energy prices and trade patterns. He also tracks how regions such as Africa are drawn into great‑power competition, treating that shift as a front line of conflict that will determine future development paths and resource flows.

Markets, money and economic illusions

Rapley consistently challenges popular narratives about financial markets and money, using economic history to test whether current booms and policies are sustainable.

He writes closely on bond markets, warning when “the bond markets are screaming” that equity investors may be underestimating risk. He examines pension funds as a looming crisis, arguing that structural problems across funds are being ignored and that this neglect has consequences for savers and public finances. He dissects asset‑price stories, including Canada’s faith in the housing market, treating housing not just as a social issue but as a core pillar of the country’s economic psychology.

In his writing on bitcoin, he frames the cryptocurrency as a speculative construct that “came from nothing” and will return to nothing, using that example to highlight how narratives about money can detach from underlying economic value. Across pieces on inflation, recessions and the prospect of another “Roaring Twenties,” he uses past cycles to test whether optimism or complacency about today’s conditions is warranted.

Policy choices, leaders and economic consequences

Rapley’s business coverage pays close attention to how leaders’ choices and policy designs translate into long‑term economic outcomes. He follows figures such as Mark Carney and Donald Trump through the lens of trade, fiscal choices and market reactions, comparing their approaches and asking which decisions actually change underlying economic trajectories. His columns on Canada’s ambition to be “masters of our own destiny” interrogate whether strategic independence from the United States is economically affordable, weighing sovereignty narratives against trade and investment realities.

He covers debates around the Bank of Canada and accusations of “class war,” examining who bears the burden of monetary policy and how rate moves redistribute costs across income groups. In work on Brexit, British politics and populism, he dissects the economic promises made to voters and shows how those promises collide with constraints like trade terms, currency reactions and productivity.

He extends that analysis to Canadian debates, comparing experiences such as Quebec’s sovereignty efforts and Alberta separatism with Brexit to illustrate how political visions can be undercut by economic structures.

Technology, climate and structural change

Rapley writes frequently on technology and climate as structural forces reshaping business, approaching both subjects with skepticism toward hype. His recent columns on artificial intelligence argue that the funding model behind the AI boom resembles an elaborate Ponzi‑style bubble, stressing how capital flows and speculative expectations, rather than immediate productivity gains, are driving valuations.

He has written about Tesla owners and environmental claims, questioning simple narratives that equate electric‑vehicle adoption with genuine climate progress. Climate risk and adaptation appear often in his work, including pieces on whether democracies can rise to the climate crisis and on air‑conditioning as an over‑adaptation that brings hidden health and environmental costs.

In energy coverage, he challenges the notion that Canada has been sold a credible promise of becoming an “energy superpower,” arguing that this story has misled public expectations and policy debates. He also writes on infrastructure choices such as high‑speed rail, treating them as examples of the right ideas executed in ways that fail to deliver their economic or environmental potential.

Across these themes, he links technology, climate policy and energy strategy back to distributional effects, asking who benefits, who pays and how today’s structural bets will look in hindsight.

Society, youth and the long view of change

Beyond markets and policy, Rapley often writes about how economic change is experienced by younger generations and ordinary households. He has explored youth rebellion in the context of a “broken economy” with few jobs and rising costs, arguing that social unrest is rooted in long‑running economic failures. His pandemic‑era commentary includes pieces on whether young people are the heroes of the crisis and on how COVID‑19 might narrow the global gap between rich and poor, again connecting immediate events to longer‑term inequality trends. He uses cultural touchpoints such as the World Cup and England’s soccer team to illustrate emerging national narratives and social cohesion, linking sport to questions of migration, identity and economic opportunity. Throughout, his columns aim to show how macroeconomic shifts and policy decisions are felt in everyday life, reinforcing a through‑line in his work: the long view of economic change grounded in concrete social outcomes.