Warren Patterson
Warren Patterson is Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, covering the global commodities complex with a focus on how supply, geopolitics and market structure drive prices and positioning. His coverage stands out for translating detailed balance and inventory work into clear price forecasts and scenario analysis across energy, agricultural and carbon markets.
Oil market structure and geopolitical risk
Oil is his core focus, and much of his work tracks how US–Iran tensions, Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions feed through to prices, spreads and inventories.
Through recurring “Commodities Feed” notes, he follows day‑to‑day moves in Brent and crude benchmarks, tying rallies or sell‑offs to developments such as deadlocked negotiations between the US and Iran, renewed peace‑deal hopes or changing crude flows out of the Persian Gulf. He uses these daily pieces to link headline events to concrete market drivers, including inventory data, supply risks and changes in sanctions policy.
In longer oil outlooks he sets explicit Brent price paths, combining production assumptions, OPEC+ supply increases and modest demand growth to argue for periods of surplus and pressure on flat prices and timespreads. When the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, he revises oil forecasts higher, explaining how blocked flows, inventory drawdowns and slow recovery in export volumes lift the floor for prices over coming quarters. He also contributes to scenario work on how a renewed energy shock in the Middle East could reshape the outlook for oil, inflation, central banks and broader financial markets.
Cross‑commodity pricing and supply–demand analysis
His remit covers the broader commodities complex, and he applies the same balance‑driven approach to softs and grains.
In cocoa, he focuses on how easing supply concerns and a return to market surplus in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons drive a sharp price correction, while still leaving prices above pre‑2023 levels. He quantifies surpluses, stock rebuilding and changes in speculative positioning, and links these directly to expected average prices for London cocoa over the year ahead.
In wheat, he highlights record global production in 2025/26 and comfortable stocks‑to‑use ratios, arguing that strong output and growing inventories will cap price upside even as production eases slightly in 2026/27. His coffee coverage follows a similar pattern: he tracks how weather‑hit Brazilian arabica output, tight stocks and tariffs lift prices, then maps the expected recovery in Brazilian and Vietnamese crops into improved supply prospects and lower prices. Across these markets, his writing is grounded in explicit tonnage, stocks and production estimates, using those numbers to frame price trajectories rather than treating commodities purely as a macro proxy.
Carbon, gas and broader energy markets
Beyond oil, he writes on gas and emissions markets, extending his supply‑demand discipline to EU carbon allowances and wider energy price risks.
In his work on EU carbon, he explains how falling allowance supply and policy changes tighten the market, and sets out average EUA price expectations for the coming year. A broader energy outlook piece brings oil, gas and CO₂ together, outlining how strong OPEC+ supply growth and modest demand leave the oil market in surplus through 2026, while carbon prices trend higher under tightening supply conditions.
These pieces position individual commodities within the wider energy complex, showing how parallel developments in fuel and carbon markets interact with each other and with financial market pricing.
Macro scenarios, formats and output
He regularly contributes to cross‑disciplinary work that links commodity shocks to macro and market outcomes, including joint pieces on how a Middle East re‑escalation could reshape interest rates and financial markets.
In risk‑focused publications, he helps set out key global economic risks for the year ahead, bringing a commodities lens to broader market discussions. His output spans formats: in addition to written analysis, he appears in videos answering detailed oil questions and explaining the Strait of Hormuz dilemma, and features in webinars on oil, Iran and the markets. The daily “Commodities Feed” notes give a running commentary on market moves, while his thematic articles, scenario pieces, webinars and videos provide deeper context on how commodity fundamentals and geopolitics translate into price forecasts and market risk.
Taken together, his work offers a consistent, numbers‑driven view of commodities within the financial markets, anchored in explicit forecasts and scenario frameworks rather than headline‑only coverage.
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Abba Ihonde
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Adam Clark
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Alasdair Ferguson
Alasdair Ferguson is a multimedia journalist at The National whose finance reporting is defined by a strong focus on culture, heritage and history. He uses archives, museums and cultural institutions to tell contemporary stories, linking public money and policy to how Scotland understands its past. He covers finance, culture, heritage, sport, arts and civic campaigns, often showing how decisions and events affect daily life and national identity. His work includes pieces on historic conflicts, museum photo releases, lost music, football history, large-scale supporter travel, arts festivals, television industry shifts and grassroots independence campaigns. He reports through news, features and multimedia, including podcast and video interviews. Across formats, he relies on concrete historical material, scholarly research and institutional sources to foreground why discoveries and campaigns matter now.
Alec Whitaker
Alec Whitaker is a senior court reporter for The Westmorland Gazette and also writes for The Mail. He stands out for reporting criminal cases in a tight, court-led way that links offences to fines, bans, compensation and other legal outcomes. His core beat is magistrates’ and crown court hearings, with regular coverage of theft, drugs, motoring offences, harassment, stalking and robbery. He reports on how the justice system turns behaviour into sentences and financial penalties, from short theft cases to serious drug charges. His pieces give the charge, the hearing, the pleas and the final order in plain terms. He also covers inquests and other court proceedings, and his work has included reporting for The Mail, The Westmorland Gazette and the North West Evening Mail.