Nick Ehrenberg

Nick Ehrenberg is a market analyst and contributor at Barchart who focuses on rule-based technical analysis of futures markets, using Fibonacci retracements and W.D. Gann levels to define trend, swing points, and price targets. His coverage is distinguished by a consistent framework built around specific percentage retracements and major Gann squares, turning market commentary into clear, actionable levels rather than broad narrative. He applies the same structured approach across commodities and equity index futures, giving readers a unified way to interpret price action in grain, livestock, gold, and S&P 500 contracts.

Fibonacci-driven futures analysis

Ehrenberg’s work is anchored in a detailed application of Fibonacci retracements, especially the 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6% levels. In a dedicated piece on the 38.2% retracement, he describes it as the single most important level and sets out a “Golden Rule” that markets must hold 38.2% to maintain their current trend and go on to make new highs or lows. He pairs this with a defined 78.6% rule, noting that a failure to make a new high around a 78.6% retracement can mark the end of a bull run and often precedes a move 78.6% back in the opposite direction. His article on gold moving from one 61.8% level to another lays out how holding 61.8% of a move typically signals a directionless or consolidating market and frames subsequent targets at 61.8% and 78.6% retracements, backed by long-term swing points and Gann squares.

Across his analysis, Ehrenberg treats specific retracement levels as “swing points” for the week, explicitly stating which price marks the boundary between positive and negative short-term trends. He ties these swing points to layered short-, longer-term, and long-term targets, each linked to a precise Fibonacci percentage of a prior move, such as 38.2% for initial trend confirmation, 61.8% for broader corrections, and 78.6% for potential exhaustion points. This methodical level-setting gives his coverage a structured, rules-based character that differs from generic technical commentary by spelling out the exact retracements that matter and how he expects the market to respond to each.

Grains and livestock trading levels

A significant portion of Ehrenberg’s recent work at Barchart covers grain futures, including soybeans, corn, and wheat, analyzed through Fibonacci and Gann frameworks. In soybean-focused pieces, he tracks how the market reacts to long-term 38.2% levels and contract lows, identifying key retracements that keep the broader trend negative or open the path back to prior swing points and major Gann squares. His corn and wheat outlooks similarly specify weekly swing points and outline short-term and long-term targets at 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6% retracements, often paired with clusters of major Gann squares that serve as critical support or resistance. He uses these structures to explain when a market’s failure to reclaim a retracement can lead to new lows, or when holding a deeper retracement might mark the start of the next leg higher in line with his 78.6% rule.

Ehrenberg extends this technical approach to livestock, writing on live cattle and whether a 78.6% retracement has ended the rally in that market. In those pieces he identifies the long-term target as 38.2% of the contract’s high-low range and labels it the long-term swing point, applying the same layered, Fibonacci-based roadmap he uses in grains. Taken together, his grains and livestock coverage presents futures markets through a consistent lens of retracement rules, swing points, and Gann squares, making it easy to see how he expects price structure to evolve week by week.

Gold and S&P 500 market commentary

Beyond commodities, Ehrenberg regularly analyzes gold and S&P 500 futures using the same technical playbook. His updates on gold and the S&P 500 set out key levels such as the 200-day moving average, 38.2% retracements back to all-time highs, and important major Gann squares that define whether the current move down is complete or whether a new leg higher is likely. He often frames the weekly outlook around whether the market can reclaim specific retracement levels above a recent low or hold them on a pullback, and he translates these outcomes directly into short-term and long-term targets. In one composite piece on gold, S&P 500 futures, and high-flying stocks, he applies his 78.6% rule to both index futures and an individual stock, highlighting how a failure to make a new high near a 78.6% retracement in NVDA could mark the end of the current bull run.

These gold and index futures articles use the same swing-point language and multi-horizon targets seen in his commodities work, allowing readers to interpret equity index price action with the same Fibonacci-based rules. By treating gold and the S&P 500 as futures markets subject to the same retracement discipline, he offers continuity for traders who move between commodities and equity indexes but prefer a single, coherent method of technical analysis.

Education and trading rules

Ehrenberg’s author bio describes him as an accomplished professional with a comprehensive background as a market analyst, noting that he has provided analysis for hedge funds while researching and developing new trading strategies to evolve with changing markets. His work at Barchart and elsewhere reflects a strong educational focus, spelling out the logic behind his Fibonacci rules and illustrating them with detailed examples in grains, metals, and index futures. He has hosted educational webinars on the use of Fibonacci retracements and produced a recurring newsletter on market analysis for S&P futures and related markets, extending his teaching beyond written articles. His ONE44-branded material is positioned as analysis and education rather than direct trading advice, reinforcing the idea that his primary aim is to explain structure, levels, and rules rather than to promote specific trades.

Alongside market-specific pieces, Ehrenberg writes thematic articles such as “Grains Analysis & Why You Need Fibonacci,” which argue for the importance of Fibonacci tools in understanding price behavior across agricultural markets. He also publishes focused guides on individual retracement levels, clarifying how traders can use 38.2% or 78.6% retracements to anticipate trend continuation or reversal and to map out potential short-term and long-term price paths. Across this body of work, his distinguishing trait is a commitment to codifying market behavior into repeatable rules that can be learned and applied, combining practical weekly levels with an explicit framework for how those levels interact over different time horizons.