Michael Wan

Michael Wan is a senior currency analyst with MUFG Research’s Global Markets Asia team, focused on foreign exchange markets across Asia. He covers Asian currencies through a macro and policy lens, linking global shocks, domestic politics and central bank decisions to clear currency views and forecasts. His core work sits in the Asia FX Talk series, where he explains how moves in the US dollar, interest rates, oil prices and trade policy feed through into individual Asian currencies. With more than a decade of experience in Asia macro and markets research, he writes tightly argued notes that move from headline events to specific implications for pairs such as USD/INR, USD/PHP and other regional currencies.

Asia FX Talk and Asian currency strategy

Asia FX Talk is the main vehicle for his analysis on MUFG Research, and it centres on the tug of war between global dollar drivers and local Asia factors. He tracks how changing growth differentials between Asia and the US shape his base case for regional currencies, highlighting where stronger domestic demand or export performance can offset a firm dollar. His work pays close attention to clusters of currencies, such as energy importers and AI electronics exporters including South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore, to show how sector mix and trade exposure affect FX performance. He often frames his calls around clear scenarios, setting out a baseline view and the data or policy developments that would shift his stance, which gives his notes a strategy feel rather than pure news flow.

Across these reports he writes on a broad set of Asian currencies, but returns frequently to pairs where policy or external balances are under pressure, such as the Indian rupee, Philippine peso and Thai baht. He breaks down market moves into the contributions from US yields, domestic rates, oil prices and risk sentiment, helping readers see which driver is doing the heavy lifting at each point in time. The tone is direct and data-backed, moving quickly from event description to what it means for currency levels, volatility and relative performance within Asia.

Tariffs, Trump and rate decisions in Asia

A distinctive strand in his coverage is the way he connects US trade policy and tariff announcements to Asian FX and local central bank decisions. In “Reciprocal tariffs – an eye for an eye?” he examines President Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs alongside strong US non-farm payrolls and rising inflation expectations, and shows how this mix strengthened the dollar and weighed on risk assets and Asian currencies. He then narrows the focus to India, analysing the Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate cut, market speculation about a larger move, and the impact on USD/INR levels in the days around the meeting. The note sets out explicit forecasts for RBI’s policy path and for year-end USD/INR, and his key message is that the path of least resistance is further rupee weakness, front-loaded before stabilising later.

This style — from tariff headlines through US data to central bank reactions and FX forecasts — recurs in his work and marks a difference from more generic market summaries. He uses labour market prints, inflation surveys and tariff timelines to explain why Asian currencies are mixed rather than uniformly weaker, and to identify underperformers within the region. The emphasis is on how policy credibility, growth resilience and external vulnerabilities translate into currency paths, rather than on political commentary for its own sake.

Oil shocks, Middle East risk and energy importers

Another recurring theme in his Asia FX Talk pieces is the impact of oil price shocks and Middle East geopolitical risk on Asia’s energy-importing currencies. In “Trust is lost, and not easily found” he covers the announced blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, detailing how Brent crude prices jumped, risk assets sold off, the dollar strengthened and Asian currencies weakened in response. He stresses that the blockade is less strict than initial statements suggested, but argues that the prospects for a meaningful resumption of traffic are limited, leaving energy importers such as the rupee, peso and baht on the back foot. The analysis links the micro detail of shipping restrictions and enforcement to FX market behaviour and positioning.

He returns to Middle East tensions and oil dynamics in his work on the tug of war in Asia currencies, weighing Iran-related conflict risks against still-manageable oil prices. In that piece he notes that while higher oil can dent sentiment, price levels remain low enough to support risk appetite and prevent a broad-based capitulation in Asian FX. His treatment of these episodes illustrates the way he folds geopolitical developments into macro and market structure, focusing on how import status, fiscal positions and current accounts shape each currency’s sensitivity to oil shocks.

Regional politics, structural themes and public commentary

Within Asia he often drills into domestic political and fiscal stories when they matter for FX, as seen in his coverage of Indonesia’s corruption investigation into a government nutrition programme and associated electric motorcycle procurement. He frames the issue not as politics alone but as a question of whether the episode will lead to tighter fiscal discipline, both on-budget and through off-budget and contingent liabilities, and he stays cautious on the rupiah until there is clearer evidence of change. This shows his tendency to read political noise through a fiscal and macro lens and to be explicit about what would change his currency stance.

Beyond written research, he appears regularly in MUFG’s Global Markets Podcast, where he discusses what has been driving FX markets in Asia and identifies possible outperformers such as the Philippine peso and themes like Vietnam as a microcosm of China+1 supply chain shifts. His commentary is also cited in regional business media, including analysis of how US actions on oil could initially push prices lower and what that means for the Philippine peso. Professional profiles describe him as an Asia economist with more than 12 years of experience producing differentiated macroeconomic and investment research and engaging in public commentary. Together, his research, forecasts and spoken analysis present a consistent focus on Asian currencies at the intersection of global policy, regional politics and structural economic change.