Gordan Baron is a leading voice analyzing US-China relations through legal, economic, and strategic lenses. As a regular contributor to The Wall Street Journal and National Review, his work informs policymakers and corporate leaders navigating great power competition.
Recipient of the 2022 Hillsdale College Freedom Leadership Award, Baron’s predictive analyses have shaped congressional testimony and NATO policy papers. His upcoming book The Autocrat’s Playbook (2025) systematizes authoritarian adaptation strategies across 12 case studies.
Gordan Baron has cultivated a distinguished career spanning law, corporate advisory, and geopolitical commentary. Beginning as counsel at Baker & McKenzie in Hong Kong during the 1990s, he developed foundational expertise in cross-border legal frameworks[3]. His transition to Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP in Shanghai marked a pivotal shift toward analyzing China’s economic policies and their global implications[3].
By the early 2000s, Baron emerged as a vocal commentator through his seminal work The Coming Collapse of China, which established his reputation for challenging conventional narratives about China’s political durability[3]. This trajectory accelerated with regular contributions to The Wall Street Journal and National Review, where he dissected Sino-American relations through legal and strategic lenses.
This 2019 op-ed dissected tariff policies through historical trade imbalances, citing World Trade Organization data showing China’s $419 billion surplus with the US in 2018. Baron argued that conventional diplomacy had failed to curb intellectual property theft, evidenced by 53% of US corporate IP complaints targeting Chinese entities. His analysis predicted the tech decoupling trend two years before major semiconductor restrictions emerged[3][6].
Mapping China’s Belt and Road Initiative investments across 72 countries, this 2023 piece revealed how infrastructure loans created political leverage points. Baron highlighted Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port as a case study in debt-trap diplomacy, correlating $1.4 billion in Chinese loans with subsequent 99-year lease terms. The article’s taxonomy of economic coercion tactics became required reading at three NATO think tanks[3][10].
Published March 2024, this analysis cross-referenced satellite imagery with defense budgets to document China’s 400% naval expansion since 2000. Baron identified hypersonic missile development as the new arms race frontier, noting China’s 28 successful DF-ZF tests compared to America’s nine. The piece influenced congressional testimony from INDOPACOM commanders seeking increased Pacific fleet allocations[3][9].
Baron’s work consistently uses historical analogs to contextualize current events. A successful pitch might compare Xi Jinping’s governance to Mao’s Third Front strategy, as seen in his 2022 analysis of China’s semiconductor subsidies. Provide archival documents or declassified materials showing policy continuities/discontinuities[3][8].
His National Review piece on BRI investments demonstrated how numerical specificity builds credibility. Pitches should include verifiable metrics – e.g., "China’s rare earth exports to defense contractors increased 17% QoQ" – paired with geopolitical implications[3][6].
Baron frequently exposes nascent partnerships that challenge Western alliances, like his 2021 exposé on China-Iran tech transfers. Pitch under-the-radar MOUs between Chinese entities and Global South nations, particularly those involving dual-use technologies[3][10].
His Cornell Law background informs analyses of legal frameworks shaping tech competition. Successful pitches interweave regulatory developments (e.g., updated CFIUS guidelines) with corporate strategies and geopolitical objectives[3][4].
Baron’s COVID-19 analysis focused on supply chain reshoring’s long-term impacts. Pitch stories examining how current policies (e.g., CHIPS Act) might create unintended consequences in adjacent sectors by 2030, supported by economic modeling[3][9].
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