Deepali Bhargava

Deepali Bhargava focuses on the intersection of Asia-Pacific monetary policy, inflation and market pricing, using her macro research role to turn central bank decisions into clear narratives for investors and finance professionals. Her work at ING Think centres on how interest-rate moves, energy shocks and currency trends feed into the region’s economic outlook and tradeable opportunities, rather than on headline policy announcements alone.

She is Regional Head of Research and Chief Economist Asia-Pacific at ING Think, a role she took on in 2024 after nearly two decades working as a macro specialist. In this capacity she leads analysis on Asia-Pacific economies and financial markets, and her written pieces and public commentary reflect both house views and her own structured assessment of growth, inflation and policy paths. Across her output she combines data-driven macro forecasting with a practical sense of how rate moves and shocks translate into currency pairs, bond curves and trade finance conditions.

Reserve Bank of Australia and policy path analysis

A distinctive strand of Bhargava’s coverage is her sustained focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the evolution of its tightening and easing cycles. In her article on an RBA meeting that left the cash rate unchanged, she emphasises that the Bank’s tone remains even-handed, stressing the balance of risks around inflation and growth rather than treating a hold as a static outcome. In a separate preview piece, she argues that “next week provides another window to cut rates,” framing the decision in terms of downside risks to both growth and inflation and setting out a profile that takes the cash rate to a lower terminal level by the end of 2025.

Her RBA work repeatedly links policy decisions to underlying inflation data, domestic demand and labour-market conditions. In analysis of a February meeting, she explains that faster-than-expected disinflation and subdued private demand justify rate cuts, connecting these macro drivers to the Bank’s confidence that inflation will return sustainably to target. In other commentary she highlights upside surprises in Australia’s CPI, particularly in services and housing, and uses these details to argue for a cautious 25bp rate hike and a higher policy path. When the RBA raises rates several times in succession, she describes policy as restrictive but not necessarily locked into a one-way tightening trend, again focusing on the signal about future flexibility rather than the move in isolation.

Bhargava also distinguishes herself by quantifying neutral and terminal rate estimates for the RBA and by discussing how bills rates should behave around those levels. In one strategy note she identifies a medium-term neutral RBA rate near 3.6% and sketches a scenario in which the three-month bills rate trades in the 4.25–4.5% area before gradually reverting towards neutrality. This kind of rate-path mapping, combined with her commentary on markets’ implied pricing for cuts and hikes, marks her out from more straightforward meeting recaps and makes her RBA coverage useful for readers who need both macro context and market-relevant numbers.

Asia’s energy shock and inflation risks

Beyond Australia, Bhargava devotes substantial attention to how energy shocks and commodity-price swings reshape inflation and policy choices across Asia. In a webinar titled “Asia’s energy shock – Who is most exposed?” she leads a discussion on the impact of surging oil prices on key economies, focusing on which countries bear the brunt of higher import costs and how that feeds into consumer prices and central bank reactions. Her framing treats oil and fuel prices as core inputs to inflation trajectories rather than as separate market stories, underlining her macro specialist background.

This theme recurs when she analyses monetary policy in other contexts. In her work on the RBA, she notes that rising energy-driven inflation and firm underlying price pressures strengthen the case for a 25bp hike and support gains in AUD/USD, tying commodity prices directly to currency and rate dynamics. In coverage of successive Australian rate increases, she points out that the war in the Middle East has pushed up fuel prices and is one reason inflation is expected to remain above target for some time. Across these pieces she uses geopolitical events and energy markets as lenses on inflation risks, keeping the focus on policy implications rather than on the geopolitical story itself.

Macro strategy, trade ideas and FX outlooks

Bhargava’s output consistently moves from macro diagnosis to actionable market views, especially in rates and foreign exchange. In “Australia is primed to hike – how to play it,” she outlines how anticipated RBA tightening should be expressed in positioning across bills, swaps and other instruments, combining her assessment of the macro backdrop with guidance on where yields and curves could settle. In AUD/USD analysis she and a colleague argue that a hawkish RBA path, underpinned by energy-driven inflation and firm core price pressures, supports gains in the currency pair, linking policy expectations to FX strategy in clear terms.

Her webinar and podcast work extends this approach to global currencies and cross-market themes. She features in ING’s 2026 FX outlook events, helping set views on how Asia-Pacific currencies might behave under different growth and inflation scenarios. In a THINK aloud episode on “How far can the dollar fall?” she joins other strategists to discuss the dollar’s trajectory, again situating FX moves within broader macro conditions and policy cycles. She also contributes to global economic outlook sessions that examine Asia-Pacific growth, domestic demand and inflation in the context of world markets, reinforcing her role as a regional macro voice with a markets orientation.

Her commentary at other outlets shows similar habits. In a trade-finance feature she discusses how the Reserve Bank of India has been pivotal to the expansion of trade finance in Asia, linking central bank decisions to liquidity, pricing and cross-border flows. In panel insights on US tariff policy, she sets out a baseline expectation for higher duties on global partners and considers the implications for growth and inflation, again tying policy shifts to macro outcomes rather than treating them as isolated political events. Across these contributions she brings a structured, scenario-based style that connects central bank and policy actions to market instruments and real-economy channels.

Research leadership and long-term macro themes

Bhargava’s writing is shaped by her position at the helm of Asia-Pacific research. She joined ING in 2024 and serves as Head of Research and Chief Economist for the region, drawing on more than 19–20 years of experience as a macro specialist. Her background includes senior macro roles at major global investment institutions, and that experience informs the way she integrates risk budgeting, asset allocation and balance-sheet considerations into her work. In addition to regular written analysis, she appears frequently in webinars, conferences and outlook events that cover household consumption and savings, inflation expectations, energy shocks and broader economic prospects in Asia.

These leadership responsibilities give her coverage a broader frame than a beat reporter’s. She does not simply follow one central bank or market; instead she coordinates views across Asia-Pacific and connects them to themes such as inclusive growth, frontier markets and sustainable development when relevant to macro trends. Her pieces and interventions typically discuss base cases and risks, quantify paths for policy rates and yields, and pay close attention to how shocks in one part of the region or in commodities spill over into currencies, credit and trade finance. For organisations looking to understand how Asia-Pacific monetary policy, inflation and energy markets fit together, Bhargava’s work offers a consistent, analytically grounded macro narrative with clear pointers to market implications.