Carsten Brzeski

Carsten Brzeski is a senior macroeconomic analyst at ING Research whose work focuses on the economic and political dynamics of Germany and the wider Eurozone, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy and structural reform. His coverage stands out because he approaches economic stories as a macro strategist, linking policy choices, demographics and investment to long-term growth and competitiveness rather than short-term market moves.

Germany’s reform train

On ING Think, Carsten Brzeski uses German reform debates as a lens on the country’s shifting economic model, most clearly in his article “Germany’s reform train is picking up steam”. In that piece he analyses proposals to reform the pension system and presents them as a step in the right direction, treating social security changes as part of a broader effort to modernise the economy. His commentary on Germany’s recent fiscal U‑turn, including the decision to relax debt constraints and fund large-scale investment packages, carries the same structural focus, framing the shift as both “remarkable and significant” and questioning how durable it will be. In broadcast and podcast appearances he breaks down Germany’s political and economic landscape in detail, connecting coalition politics, defense and climate spending, and the constitutional debt brake to the country’s growth prospects and competitiveness. Across these formats he consistently reads reforms not as isolated legislative events but as signals of how Germany intends to finance its future, making his coverage especially relevant when a story hinges on fiscal rules, pension changes or strategic investment.

ECB rate hikes? Not so fast

Monetary policy and inflation dynamics are a second pillar of Brzeski’s work, anchored by his ING Think opinion “ECB rate hikes? Not so fast”. In that article he contrasts aggressive market pricing for rate increases with a more cautious view of the European Central Bank’s reaction function, emphasising that actual inflation data, survey-based expectations and wage developments will determine policy more than headline energy shocks. He describes the ECB as “driving at sight”, highlighting how policymakers navigate overlapping scenarios rather than a single forecast, and spells out the thresholds—such as core inflation above 3% or a surge in inflation expectations—that would force a response. In interviews he extends this analysis into a medium-term inflation path, arguing that the current shock is transitory, outlining a period of elevated inflation around 4% followed by a return below target, and stressing the lack of strong grounds for wage-driven second-round effects. Taken together, his coverage offers a granular view of how the ECB interprets data and manages credibility, making him a distinctive voice on stories involving rate decisions, inflation waves and the interaction between monetary policy and the real economy.

Europe at a crossroads

Brzeski regularly steps back from country-level stories to examine Europe’s growth model and strategic choices, as in his analysis “Europe at a crossroads – the fragile future of European growth”. There he characterises Europe’s economy as stuck in neutral and argues that public and private investment, structural reforms and greater strategic autonomy are essential to sustaining competitiveness. He underscores that uncertainty and disruptions will be a fact of life for European businesses, pushing scenario planning and risk assessment to the centre of corporate strategy. In his article on what Europe needs to learn from Japan, he uses Japan’s long period of low growth and high debt as a reference point, asking what lessons Europe should take to avoid prolonged stagnation and underinvestment. His comments in news and policy discussions reinforce this long-horizon approach, stressing that Europe needs structural reforms and a coherent long-term strategy to bolster resilience rather than relying on short bursts of cyclical growth. This strand of his work frames European stories in terms of productivity, demographics, industrial policy and strategic autonomy, giving communications teams a clear sense of how he will situate individual developments within Europe’s broader trajectory.

The global economy at half time

Although his core expertise lies in Germany and the Eurozone, Brzeski also contributes global macro views, including pieces and videos on “the global economy at half time” and on risks from a Middle East re‑escalation. In these formats he looks across regions to assess how geopolitical tensions, energy prices and trade shifts feed back into growth and inflation, and how they interact with already modest baseline forecasts for mature economies like those in Europe. He participates in webinars that stress-test ING’s central calls for the ECB and markets, exploring what could go wrong around key policy meetings and mapping alternative scenarios. ING Think carries his analysis in multiple formats—quick takes, longer articles, reports, opinions, videos and live discussions—reflecting his dual role as a research leader and public-facing commentator. His own description of his work emphasises that he mainly comments on the German and European economy, but the global perspective in these pieces shows how he situates regional stories within a wider macro environment. For stories touching on macro risk, geopolitical shocks or the intersection of finance and policy, his coverage offers structured scenarios rather than reactive market commentary.