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Alexis A. Crow

orfonline.orgUK
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Real Estate InvestingGeopoliticsMacroeconomicsFuture of Work
About

Alexis A. Crow brings a global macro and geopolitics lens to real estate, treating the built environment as one part of long-horizon investment strategy rather than a standalone market cycle. She is Partner and Chief Economist of PwC US and leads its Geopolitical Investing practice, advising corporations and asset managers on capitalising on dislocations driven by politics and macroeconomic change. She is also a Senior Fellow with the Observer Research Foundation, where she authors special reports on real estate, portfolio diversification, long-term interest rates, and the future of work. Across these outlets, her work stands out for connecting asset allocation decisions in real estate to policy regimes, interest-rate dynamics, and structural shifts in technology and labour markets. Her writing is aimed at investors and decision-makers managing global portfolios, emphasising resilience, risk management and opportunities over multi-decade horizons.

Real estate in the next cycle and the built environment

Crow’s defining real estate work centres on the turning of the cycle and how investors should reposition for the next phase, rather than on deals or local market reporting. In “Real Estate in the Next Cycle: A New Generation of Investment Ideas for the Built Environment,” she sets out a new playbook for investors seeking long-term returns in global portfolios as the cycle shifts. She examines how changing geopolitical asset allocation can guide portfolio strategy for real assets, framing real estate as a way to express views on political risk, regional growth, and regulatory environments. Her analysis looks across geographies and sectors within the built environment, focusing on where capital can be deployed for durable income and capital appreciation as macro conditions evolve.

Her approach to real estate also extends to housing policy and affordability. In “The Future of Affordable Housing in the US: Global Solutions for a Local Problem,” she dissects the Low Income Housing Tax Credit framework, explaining how federal tax credits flow through state-level allocation, developer incentives, and investor demand. She explores reforms such as the 4 percent floor for credits and recent bipartisan proposals that could support hundreds of thousands of new affordable units, tying these policy changes directly to investment opportunity and supply outcomes. She also highlights how zoning and density rules, including proposals to lift floor-area-ratio caps in New York City, can unlock new housing supply, showing how regulatory detail translates into real-world pipeline for projects and capital. Taken together, her real estate coverage consistently links policy instruments, zoning and tax architecture to investment themes in the built environment, with an emphasis on long-term, institutional capital.

Portfolio diversification and policy-driven market regimes

Beyond individual assets, Crow writes extensively about portfolio construction under shifting policy and geopolitical regimes, and this perspective feeds back into her real estate coverage. In “Diversification: A Practical Guide for Portfolio Rebalancing and Operational Excellence Amidst Continuing Policy Shifts,” she offers a framework for how investors can rebalance portfolios and improve operational performance as policy uncertainty remains elevated. The report treats diversification not just as spreading risk across asset classes, but as an active response to changing regulation, trade patterns, and fiscal choices, with real estate positioned alongside equities, fixed income and alternative assets in that broader context. Her work emphasises how governance, operational execution and rebalancing discipline can be as important as sector selection for achieving long-term objectives.

In “Annual Outlook 2025: Back to the Future?” she extends this view to a forward-looking macro narrative, assessing how inflation, growth and geopolitical tensions are likely to shape global markets in the near term. She situates investor decisions, including real estate allocations, within a world where historical patterns re-emerge but under new constraints, stressing the need for adaptable strategies as policy regimes shift. Her podcast appearances on topics such as “The Great Economic Reordering: What’s Next for Global Markets?” and a “new era at the Federal Reserve” reinforce this theme, as she discusses how geopolitics and macroeconomics intersect with cross-border capital flows and asset prices. For readers, the result is coverage that treats real estate and other asset classes as components of a diversified, policy-aware portfolio rather than isolated bets.

Interest rates, monetary shifts and long-horizon investing

A recurring strand in Crow’s work is the role of long-term interest rates and monetary regimes in shaping valuations and investment strategy. In “Catch a Falling r*: The Future Path of Long-Term Interest Rates in the US and Why It Matters,” she analyses the neutral rate of interest and outlines why its future trajectory is critical for investors. She explains how the level of r* influences discount rates, asset valuations and the relative attractiveness of different asset classes, including real estate and infrastructure. Her focus is on the structural drivers of interest rates—demographics, productivity, policy choices and global savings—rather than short-term market moves, aligning with her long-horizon investing ethos.

This interest-rate work is amplified in discussions of a “new era at the Federal Reserve,” where she explores how changes in central bank strategy and communication affect global markets. By tying r*, monetary policy, and investor behaviour together, she provides a framework for understanding why certain segments of the real estate market might be more resilient or vulnerable as the cost of capital evolves. Across these pieces, interest rates are not treated as background noise but as a core variable in portfolio construction and cycle timing, one that institutional investors need to embed in their real estate and broader asset allocation decisions.

Technology, labour markets and structural change

Crow’s coverage of real estate and investing sits within a wider analysis of structural economic change, particularly technology and the future of work. In “Keynes’s ‘Vision 2030’: Social Aspects of GenAI and the Future of Work,” she uses Keynes’s ideas to examine how generative AI reshapes employment, income distribution and social stability. She explores the social dimensions of automation and AI adoption, highlighting implications for labour markets that ultimately feed through to demand for different types of space and infrastructure. Her perspective links technological change to macroeconomic outcomes and investment strategy, keeping real estate within the frame as economies adjust.

Her interest in structural shifts also extends to country-level economic models. In work on Germany’s economic prospects, she has outlined how high energy costs, shifting trade dynamics and competitive pressures are disrupting the country’s traditional model and necessitating strategic adaptation. This kind of analysis brings industrial structure, energy policy and trade into the same conversation as investment themes, reinforcing a view of real estate as embedded in broader economic transitions rather than separate from them. Across technology, labour and national economic models, Crow’s writing tracks how long-term forces reshape the opportunity set for investors, with the built environment and housing as key arenas where those changes become tangible.

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UK·Real Estate
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